Possible scenario
Full U.S. Halt
27% Chance
Trump could decide that Patriot supplies are a direct U.S. bargaining chip and block all further transfers, including NATO-funded purchases using U.S. weapons stocks. This would sharply worsen Ukraine's air-defense outlook and create a visible split between Washington and European allies.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.