Possible scenario
Refining Crunch Persists
38% Chance
Russian diesel shipments resume but fail to reach U.S. users quickly enough to offset refinery outages and low distillate inventories. U.S. diesel prices break the prior $6.53 record, keeping pressure on trucking, agriculture, and wholesale goods distribution.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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