Possible scenario
Imports Normalize Supply
32% Chance
The sanctions-relief deal restores enough Russian diesel into Atlantic Basin markets to free up European and Middle Eastern barrels for the U.S. Prices retreat as traders become more confident that the export ban reversal is durable.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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