Possible scenario
Transition Slips Gradually
30% Chance
The two-year deadline proves aggressive, with qualification, yield and thermal-mechanical reliability issues pushing broad adoption later. Nvidia still ships next-generation AI accelerators, but with more conservative package sizes, higher costs or staggered configurations.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- NVDA-3.2%
- SMCI-0.7%
- CRWV-0.5%
- INTC+0.4%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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