Possible scenario
Rajapaksa Backlash
25% Chance
The Rajapaksa family and Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna frame the arrest as political persecution. The risk is not a return to 2022-style national crisis, but targeted protests that test police restraint and government messaging.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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