Possible scenario
Security Guarantees Substitute
30% Chance
The U.S. and European allies shift from membership language to a package of bilateral guarantees, air-defense commitments, and long-term arms financing. This becomes the practical compromise: no NATO invitation, but continued Western military support for Ukraine.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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