Possible scenario
NATO Freeze Holds
40% Chance
Washington keeps Ukraine's NATO accession off the negotiating table and frames the position as a prerequisite for renewed Russia-Ukraine diplomacy. Kyiv publicly objects but continues to engage because U.S. military aid and intelligence support remain tied to the broader peace process.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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