Possible scenario
Race Enters Dispute
15% Chance
The debate helps sharpen contrasts enough that the general election becomes a margin-of-error contest. If the result is extremely close, absentee ballots, provisional ballots, and county canvasses could delay a final call.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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