Possible scenario
Shadow Fleet Adapts
30% Chance
Iran’s oil network reroutes around the newly sanctioned vessels using fresh shell companies, reflagged tankers, AIS spoofing, and ship-to-ship transfers. This outcome is plausible because previous sanctions slowed but rarely eliminated the China-bound trade.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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