Possible scenario
Export Squeeze Holds
40% Chance
U.S. sanctions on the additional 17 tankers materially disrupt Iran’s shadow fleet, especially routes feeding Chinese independent refiners. The most likely near-term outcome is lower visible loadings, wider Iranian crude discounts, and a modest oil-price premium rather than a full supply crisis.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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