Possible scenario
Street Clashes Escalate
20% Chance
The protest movement hardens after new arrests or a high-profile police incident, drawing larger crowds and more confrontations. Greta Thunberg's participation gives the protests an international profile, but the immediate financial impact remains limited unless unrest spreads beyond education sites.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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