Possible scenario
Controlled Protest Persistence
34% Chance
Student groups, teacher unions, and climate activists maintain pressure without triggering a nationwide shutdown. The government avoids another large arrest wave, but rolling closures continue in Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Nantes, and Toulouse.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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