Possible scenario
Split Congress Baseline
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is Democrats flipping the House while Republicans preserve a narrow Senate majority, consistent with a Democratic generic-ballot lead but heavy GOP spending in Senate battlegrounds. Republican ad concentration helps defend seats and limit losses, while House fundamentals still favor Democrats.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Healthcare -0.3%
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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