Possible scenario
Democratic Wave
27% Chance
Democrats convert their national-ballot advantage into gains across both chambers despite the GOP ad-spending edge. Republican spending narrows races but does not overcome anti-incumbent sentiment, abortion politics, and affordability concerns.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Healthcare -0.5%
- Utilities +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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