Possible scenario
Limited Raids Contained
45% Chance
Israel keeps the operation focused on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and avoids a deeper advance beyond the border area. Hezbollah responds with limited fire, while Washington, Paris, Beirut and UNIFIL work to keep the November 2024 ceasefire framework from collapsing completely.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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