Possible scenario
NATO Crisis Escalates
18% Chance
NATO treats the sabotage campaign as a direct Russian test of alliance deterrence and moves from law enforcement to crisis management. The key uncertainty is whether the alliance limits itself to Article 4 consultations and sanctions or edges toward an Article 5 debate.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.