Possible scenario
Contained NATO Response
45% Chance
Germany, NATO, and EU intelligence services treat the airport strike as the opening move of a Russian sabotage campaign, but the immediate follow-on attacks remain limited. The most likely path is expanded counterintelligence, arrests, expulsions, and aviation-security measures rather than a direct NATO military response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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