Possible scenario
Oversight Escalates
26% Chance
Senate Democrats intensify the inquiry through hearings, document requests, and referrals to Treasury watchdogs. The White House continues to argue that the data are under review, but the dispute becomes a broader test of fiscal transparency after the 2025 tax megabill.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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