Possible scenario
Deficit Surprise Emerges
20% Chance
A delayed release or leak shows the tax package reduced revenue more than official estimates suggested, sharpening debate over deficits and distributional effects. This scenario has the clearest market relevance because it feeds directly into Treasury-supply and fiscal-sustainability concerns.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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