Possible scenario
Pavilion Stays Open
45% Chance
Moroccan authorities keep the Israeli national pavilion operating while increasing security around the Marrakech Airshow. Rabat likely prioritizes continuity of the Abraham Accords relationship and defense-commercial engagement while allowing controlled public dissent outside the venue.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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