Possible scenario
Charges Collapse Quickly
45% Chance
Federal prosecutors conclude the newly surfaced Capitol-area CCTV materially undermines the timeline used to charge Brian Cole Jr. The case is dismissed or effectively abandoned before a full trial, with the Justice Department trying to limit institutional fallout.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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