Possible scenario
Allied Sanctions Expand
20% Chance
The South Korean probe becomes part of wider G7 enforcement against Russian fuel supply chains, sanctioned tankers, and intermediaries using third-country documentation. The policy response remains targeted, but it raises compliance costs for fuel trading and maritime logistics.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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