Possible scenario
French Spread Stabilization
38% Chance
French assets stabilize as investors judge the €43 billion savings plan and follow-up political talks sufficient to avoid an immediate funding crisis. Bank shares recover part of the selloff, though risk premia remain elevated versus pre-downgrade levels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.2%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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