Possible scenario
Budget Crisis Deepens
20% Chance
Opposition from Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s left alliance and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally blocks or delays the fiscal package. Markets start to price a more serious governance shock, including a watered-down budget or a renewed parliamentary crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -3.2%
- Industrials -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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