Possible scenario
Rollback Compliance Resumes
25% Chance
El Salvador moves back toward the IMF’s original conditions by limiting Bitcoin’s legal-tender role and clarifying that private businesses are not required to accept it. This preserves IMF funding but weakens the symbolic value of El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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