IMF Truce Holds

The most likely path is a pragmatic compromise: the IMF treats the Bitcoin breach as manageable while El Salvador keeps enough formal compliance to preserve disbursements. Bukele’s government continues using Sivar and crypto-linked tools, but avoids steps that would force the Fund to suspend the program.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.