Possible scenario
Bukele Tests Limits
18% Chance
After receiving the disbursement, Bukele leans into the waiver as proof that the IMF will tolerate limited crypto deviations. That raises the probability of another dispute at the next program review, especially if Sivar is used to deepen crypto-based remittance channels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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