Possible scenario
Ban Mostly Finalized
45% Chance
ASIC moves from proposal to a largely intact rule prohibiting crypto platforms from trading as principal against retail customers. The FTX and Alameda precedent, Binance's earlier regulatory issues, and ASIC's 2026 enforcement posture make a strong conflict-of-interest rule the base case.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- COIN-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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