Possible scenario
Direct US-Iran Escalation
27% Chance
The warning turns into a direct military exchange involving Iranian launch sites and US regional bases. Both governments may still avoid formal war, but the probability of casualties and repeated retaliatory strikes rises sharply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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