Possible scenario
Contained Retaliation Cycle
38% Chance
Iran keeps its highest-alert posture and signals retaliation, but both sides try to avoid a mass-casualty exchange. Tehran is likely to use deniable proxies, cyber pressure, or intercepted strikes to show resolve without forcing Washington into a full regional campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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