Possible scenario
Back-Channel De-escalation
23% Chance
Qatar, Oman, and possibly Switzerland push both sides toward a pause after Iran's warning. This path is plausible because neither Tehran nor Washington benefits from an uncontrolled regional war, especially with US bases exposed across the Gulf.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.