Possible scenario
Western Backing Expands
20% Chance
The United States and European allies interpret the latest strikes as evidence that pressure on Russian rear-area infrastructure is effective. Support expands through intelligence sharing, air-defense deliveries and long-range strike enablers, while allies still try to avoid direct NATO involvement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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