Possible scenario
Strikes Become Sustained
40% Chance
Ukraine continues a steady deep-strike campaign against Russian oil logistics and defense production, building on the recent Moscow, Rostov and missile-plant attacks. Russia absorbs the damage with dispersal, air-defense redeployments and repairs, but fuel distribution and weapons-output bottlenecks worsen incrementally.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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