Possible scenario
Russia Retaliates Hard
30% Chance
Moscow responds with a larger retaliation package against Ukrainian power, rail and drone-production infrastructure. The escalation stays below direct NATO-Russia conflict, but it raises near-term geopolitical risk and reinforces demand for air defense.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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