Possible scenario
Orderly Valuation Reset
30% Chance
The crash becomes a valuation reset rather than a systemic event. Investors cut exposure to speculative AI infrastructure and chip-design shares while rotating into banks, utilities, telecoms and cash-generative internet platforms.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Telecommunications +0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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