Possible scenario
Global AI Contagion
25% Chance
The Chinese equity crash reinforces the global thesis that AI capital spending and data-center demand were overcapitalized. Investors reduce exposure to US, Taiwan and Korean semiconductor leaders, creating another risk-off session across global technology.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.3%
- Industrials -1.0%
- Business Services -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA-4.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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