Possible scenario
Beijing Backstop Arrives
35% Chance
Beijing moves quickly to limit wealth-effect damage and prevent the AI equity crash from becoming a broader confidence shock. The most likely support mix is state-fund buying, CSRC guidance to brokers and funds, and targeted liquidity rather than an unlimited market guarantee.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +2.0%
- Finance +1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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