Possible scenario
Policy Restraint Returns
25% Chance
Authorities decide the PPI jump partly reflects renewed speculative production and input hoarding. Beijing leans harder on overcapacity controls, energy-intensity rules, and credit discipline for sectors such as steel, cement, aluminum, and solar components.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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