Possible scenario
Managed Industrial Reflation
45% Chance
Beijing treats the PPI jump as evidence that earlier stimulus, liquidity injections, and capacity controls are lifting industrial pricing power after years of deflation. Policy remains supportive but targeted, with the NDRC and PBOC trying to avoid a renewed credit boom.
Initial impacts
- Copper Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.5%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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