Possible scenario
Global Inflation Spillover
20% Chance
Investors treat China's PPI rebound as a sign that the global goods-disinflation impulse is fading. The immediate cross-market impact is moderate but visible in commodities, breakevens, and companies exposed to China-linked import costs.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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