Possible scenario
Attribution Without Retaliation
30% Chance
Lithuania attributes the airspace incident to Belarusian or Russian-linked activity but avoids a kinetic response. NATO reinforces surveillance and air policing while keeping the matter in diplomatic and military-to-military channels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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