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its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Kalshi’s opening forces incumbent exchanges, retail brokers, and crypto-native derivatives firms to respond faster than expected. The market interprets the product category as validated, even if Kalshi’s first-mover advantage narrows.

What it moves

Finance+0.9%
Technology+0.5%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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