Possible scenario
Regional Military Escalation
20% Chance
Riyadh treats the North Ghawar image as confirmation of a strategic attack and escalates militarily against Houthi infrastructure, potentially with U.S. intelligence or naval support. The key market risk is whether escalation remains confined to Yemen or begins to involve Iranian assets and the Strait of Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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