Possible scenario
Contained Ghawar Damage
38% Chance
Saudi authorities and Aramco confirm the smoke came from a localized strike or secondary fire at the North Ghawar complex, but core production and stabilization systems remain functional. Markets price in elevated risk but not a sustained loss of Saudi supply.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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