Renewed Escalation
−2.0%
A miscalculation or casualty-producing incident overwhelms Trump’s de-escalatory signal. The probability is lower because both sides have incentives to stop the oil-price and military spiral, but the military assets already deployed make a rapid reversal possible.
What it moves
- Energy+4.7%
- Consumer Services−3.1%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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