Possible scenario
Talarico Narrowly Wins
42% Chance
James Talarico converts his polling edge, fundraising advantage, and Senate Majority PAC support into a narrow Democratic pickup in Texas. Ken Paxton's vulnerabilities with suburban voters and lingering legal baggage prove decisive in a close race.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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