Possible scenario
NATO Patrols Contain Risk
45% Chance
NATO responds to Bulgaria's request with rotational combat air patrols and tighter surveillance over the western Black Sea, but avoids direct convoy-style escort missions that would raise the chance of contact with Russian aircraft or drones. Russia protests diplomatically but largely keeps attacks away from vessels operating near Bulgarian and Romanian waters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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