Possible scenario
Harassment Continues Offshore
25% Chance
Russia keeps pressure on Ukraine-linked maritime traffic and tests NATO's tolerance with drones, electronic warfare, and strikes near but not directly against NATO assets. The conflict remains below the Article 5 threshold, but markets price a higher risk premium for Black Sea shipping, grain, and regional energy flows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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