Possible scenario
Direct NATO Incident
15% Chance
A Russian drone or missile comes into direct contact with the new NATO protective posture, forcing an interception or causing damage to allied equipment. The event does not automatically mean war, but it creates the most serious NATO-Russia military crisis in the Black Sea since the invasion of Ukraine.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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