Possible scenario
Democrats reopen terms
27% Chance
The pause reflects real Democratic unease about the White House's characterization of the agreement and the balance between fossil fuel concessions and clean energy permitting. Negotiators keep talking, but the unveil slips as senators seek changes to statutory deadlines, court limits or offshore wind guarantees.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.8%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- D+1.6%
- NEE+1.5%
- KMI-0.5%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.